Date: 2010-09-04 12:15 am (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geistarbeiter.livejournal.com
нет, на второй ступени вероятность была бы 1/2 только в случае равновероятности всех возможных событий. но из-за манипуляции ведущего они не равновероятны.

http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5_%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5
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